Model vs Market
When our model’s probability for an outcome differs from the bookmaker’s implied probability by more than three points, the match is flagged as a "model vs market" angle.
What model-vs-market is — and isn’t
It is a disagreement signal. It is not a guarantee. The market is right most of the time; we flag disagreements so a reader can decide whether the model is seeing something the price missed, or whether the market has information the model lacks.
On the match report we always show both numbers — model probability and implied probability — so the gap is visible at a glance.
How to read the flag
Read it as "the model disagrees by X points". Then look at the data-quality score and the recent odds movement before drawing any conclusion.
FAQ
- Is the model usually right when it disagrees with the market?
- Sometimes yes, sometimes no — that’s why we publish the disagreement transparently rather than packaging it as a "value bet". The track record page shows the historical hit rate honestly.
Open a sample report
Las predicciones son probabilísticas y tienen fines exclusivamente informativos. No prometemos resultados. 18+ — juega responsablemente.